Democracy - Level 7 Galaxy Brain Hive-Mindtrick

Putin gave an interview today.

Context #

The “amendments of 2020” are set to be voted on by the Russian people in a referendum this July 1st. The amendments have a dozen clauses, ranging from defining “marriage” as that between a man and woman, and defining a floor for minimum wage. Any of these clauses could influence the referendum’s outcome; however, the most obvious reason for these amendments to be proposed in the first place, is the Clause which effectively allows Putin another twelve years in office.

In 2008, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin had already served two terms as President. Although he was by far the most popular politician in the country, he was constitutionally barred from serving more than two consecutive terms. Putin’s handpicked successor Dmitry Medvedev ran for president in his stead.

During the campaign, Medvedev publicly stated that, once elected, he will immediately appoint Putin as his Prime Minister. Medvedev won the Presidency with 70% of the vote, and Putin was indeed immediately appointed Prime Minister, 20 hours after handing his presidency away.

In true Russian fashion, the media coined this move “Rokirovka” (рокировка) — castling in chess, the exchange in position between the King and Rook.

A few months later, President Medvedev proposed the “2008 amendments” to the Duma, which extends the presidential term from four years to six years, effective 2012. The Duma passed it — the amendment also increases the Duma term limit to five years.

In 2012, Prime Minister Putin ran for President, won, then appointed Medvedev as his Prime Minister. In 2018, he won another term to serve until 2024.

Now, two years into his second six-year Presidency, Putin proposed another amendment.

The new “2020 amendments” reworked the language of Constitutional election laws. Originally, the phrasing was “a person cannot be President for two consecutive terms.” Putin was able to circumvent this in 2008. This phrase, he said, is “very confusing to certain political scientists.”

Thus, he offered a solution: change the language to “a person cannot be elected President twice in a row”. It means the same thing, sure; Putin would still be unable to run again in 2024, since the term limit is still two consecutive terms.

But he can. Because this election law amendment also resets the clock on the presidency. He would be able to run, legally categorized as a person who has never been President. He no longer needs to deploy another Rokirovka.

Both the Duma and the Supreme Court have already passed it. There technically doesn’t even need to be a national referendum for this to become law. But Putin wanted a public mandate, a general statement of approval from his citizens.

The Meat #

Putin gave an interview today.

When asked on State TV why Russians should vote to keep him in power, he replied:

“You know, I’ll say absolutely frankly now: if this amendment does not happen, in two years — I know this from my own experience — instead of normal, steady work at various levels of power, everyone will start looking around for possible successors.”

This dude’s argument for why he should continue to run a democracy, is that a democracy (a type of political mechanism specifically designed for the masses to elect successors) would be unable to elect a successor while also continuing to function well.

Level 1 #

Clearly, Putin knows his words are undemocratic.

Undemocratic, not because he’s violating a democracy, but meaning he knows Russia isn’t really a democracy.

For example, in ancient China, during the era of the dynasties, a succession could mean death or a life of prosperity for aristocratic families. Let’s say there are two imperial princes eligible to become Emperor. A high ranking court minister would have to support one of them. If he chooses wrong, then bye-bye-head.

Thus, whenever the Emperor entered old age, every minister would begin to strategize and categorize, choosing a princely camp as wisely as they could. Consequently, with every official plotting and participating in power struggles during the Emperor’s waning years, very little governmental work would be done.

This doesn’t happen as egregiously in a democracy. Sure, officials campaign during their final year, but the actual succession is carried out by the people, while the actual governmental work is done by unelected bureaucrats, at no risk of decapitation whomever the President is.

Russia is not a democracy.

As Putin clearly said: “instead of normal, steady work at various levels of power, everyone (meaning officials) will start looking around for possible successors.”

Like an imperial court, before succession, there will be speculations and rampant power-shifting activities; after succession, there will be purges. No physical blood, probably; purges nonetheless. Scores of people will lose favor; be dismissed; campaign fund from the party taken away; political career OVER; jailed.

Putin knows Russia is not a democracy.

It might appear to function like one, but it isn’t.

Level 2 #

But wait! Putin said this statement in which he signals Russia is not a democracy on public television.

He knows the public will accept this statement. Or rather, they can’t do much about it anyway.

Level 3 #

But wait, how can the public accept such an obvious statement that says they aren’t living in a democracy?

Because the public already knows. Every Russian knows they aren’t living in a real democracy; throughout the entire Russian history, they might have lived in a democracy for about five years, then not anymore.

Level 4 #

Putin knows everyone knows they aren’t living in a democracy, and so it’s perfectly fine if he says something this blatantly undemocratic. A statement won’t be blatantly bad if it’s just pointing out the norm.

Freedom Meat #

Now, we proceed to the juicy, red, medium-rare American meat.

America isn’t a real democracy either.

Level 5 #

America functions quite well as a democracy at local levels — Townships, city councils, small town mayors, etc.

But on a federal level, America is a representative republic.

Well, it’s really a representative democracy, but the UK parliamentary-style government is also a representative democracy. In comparison, America is distinctly more republican. Our capital is a Roman Republic theme park, after all.

This is by design. No technologies existed in the 1700s that enabled massive instantaneous choice on any issue by tens of millions of people. The Founding Fathers couldn’t fathom such a phenomenon, and thus a government run by everyone in the entire country would seem utterly chaotic.

And so, every four years, ~120 million people cast a vote, then the results are shown to 538 people in the electoral college, then they vote for a President. They’re supposed to vote according to how their states voted, but they don’t have to.

Many people find this part problematic. However, I think it actually seems pretty reasonable. After all, being mobbed into oblivion by ten million people after you cast a vote contrary to their choice, would deter any electors from voting against the state-level popular vote. Of course, casting a vote due to massive social pressure would seem contradictory to the “majestic course of democracy.”

The point is, unlike all Russians, most Americans don’t know they don’t live in a real democracy.

But how has America been… fine? No dictators, no presidents for life, no overt military regimes.

In middle school, history teachers would sum it up to “President (General) Washington ceded his presidency after eight years, thereby setting a precedent for all subsequent presidents to retire after at most eight years.”

But precedents can be broken, why hasn’t it?

Level 6 #

Because Americans believe we live in a democracy. We not only believe it, we scream it everywhere we go. “Democracy” is plastered in all mediums of books, arts, and communication as an American identity. We’ve gone to wars purporting to spread “the seed of democracy”. We are America; we are democratic.

Let’s say an American President is keenly aware that we aren’t a democracy. Let’s also say he really really wants to become a dictator. What would he do to achieve this goal?

He won’t do anything.

He could do something. But he won’t.

Any attempt to unveil this illusion of democracy would cause the wrath of 350 million democracy believers.

For 250 years, American politicians, whether they realized America isn’t a democracy or not, has had to carefully maintain the illusion. If they don’t, then the very system which put them in their comfortable position would collapse. They would become a public enemy. Or so they think.

But them imagining a public wrath is enough of a deterrence to concede any thought in doing anything undemocratic.

Level 7 #

Everyone in Russia knows they’re living in a fake democracy, thus politicians are able to get away with undemocratic behavior. As a result, Russia is no longer functioning like a democracy.

Conversely, everyone in America believes they’re living in a real democracy, while they really aren’t. But the latter doesn’t matter, because this delusion has forced politicians to maintain the appearance of democracy. They cannot be seen doing any undemocratic behavior; the best way to not be seen doing something— is to not do it. As a result, America is practically functioning like a real democracy — ironically protected by the ignorance of its citizens.

TL;DR:

Basically the naive conclusion of this essay is: Russia isn’t a democracy anymore because her people believes it not to be one, so they tolerate undemocratic behaviors. Whereas America is functioning like a democracy despite also being a fake democracy. This is because Americans strongly believe we’re a democracy, therefore our politicians must fit that belief, or else they get mobbed.